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New Yorkers will discover who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the country's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by significant margins across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's power moves, takes in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable comeback victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd